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What Is Price Action?

Traders often want to learn about trading concepts like Price Action trading. But often new traders have no idea what the terminology is, nor how to even learn more about futures trading concepts like price action trading. “Are you actually able to follow the numbers in ES or NQ? Or even in Treasuries? I don’t see how that’s possible.”

That’s a question I’ve heard several times over the years. It usually comes from traders trying to understand how decisions can be made by watching order flow and price action, rather than relying on indicators.

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It is possible, at times, to follow the numbers in Treasury futures. These products are typically very liquid and move much slower than most equity index futures. That’s one of the main reasons I’ve always considered Treasury futures to be among the best markets for newer traders who are trying to learn how markets actually function. They allow traders to refine entries and exits in ways that simply aren’t possible in faster, more erratic markets.

That said, even when you can follow the numbers, those numbers are meaningless unless they’re interpreted within the context of price action.

Numbers Alone Don’t Tell the Story. A good example is iceberg orders. A common comment I hear is something like this:

“Sometimes I see an iceberg and the market reverses. Other times price trades straight through it. And sometimes nothing happens at all. How am I supposed to know which outcome it’ll be?”

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The short answer is you can’t—unless you understand the bigger picture.

If the 30-year, 10-year, and 5-year Treasury contracts are all selling off aggressively and you spot a single iceberg bid, that alone is not a reason to step in front of the move and try to buy. In that situation, you’re far more likely to get run over as the selling continues.

On the other hand, if a trend is clearly slowing and the market appears to be losing momentum, an iceberg might be meaningful. In that context, it can serve as a clue that a reversal is possible.

Now consider a different scenario. If the market has been stuck in a 12-tick range for two hours and an iceberg prints in the middle of that range, it’s usually irrelevant. There’s no directional pressure, so the order itself doesn’t carry much information.

This is why context and price action matter far more than individual bid/ask changes or raw contract volume.

Reading Behavior, Not Data Points

Yesterday morning provided a good example in the ES.

There were two separate moments where it looked like the market might break lower. I was short both times, and both times it didn’t happen. But I didn’t lose money—and that’s the key.

Each time price approached the lows, instead of snapping through, it stalled. It paused. A few contracts traded. Then it paused again, ticked slightly higher, and stalled once more.

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That is not the behavior you want to see when you’re short.

This has nothing to do with indicators, market profile, or some specific number on the DOM. It’s about understanding how markets behave when they’re about to move with momentum. If price was going to break lower in a meaningful way, it probably should have already done so.

Because it didn’t, I exited the short. I didn’t wait around hoping I was right. I also didn’t convince myself the market had to go lower. I simply recognized that the expected behavior wasn’t showing up.

In that situation, I exit and prepare for the possibility of a reversal. If the bounce accelerates, I’m ready to flip long. If it doesn’t, I stay flat. I’m reacting to what the market is doing, not what I want it to do.

Let the Trade Come to You

This is one of the hardest lessons for most traders to learn.

You have to let the trade present itself. If you understand how markets work, the opportunity will eventually become obvious. When it does, you react. Until then, you wait.

Most traders struggle with this. They turn on their screens, and if they haven’t taken a trade in the first five minutes, they start forcing things. The urge to do something becomes stronger than the desire to be profitable.

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Profit requires patience.

What usually happens is predictable: five trades in the first hour with no real read on the market. A hole gets dug. Then, when the best setups finally appear in the second hour, the trader either doesn’t take them—or takes them just to get back to breakeven instead of having a solid day.

Yes, sometimes the best trades appear right at the open. When they do, that’s when you want to be involved. But if they aren’t there, don’t talk yourself into seeing something that doesn’t exist.

The best trades are often the most obvious ones.

Price Action Is the Common Thread

No one is watching every single transaction in the NQ with the naked eye. That’s not realistic. But you can get a sense of its rhythm by watching the DOM and understanding the ebb and flow of price. I use that information to make decisions in stocks and ETFs that track the Nasdaq 100.

With Treasury futures, I’m often watching many of the actual number changes because the pace allows for it. But in both cases, the conclusion is the same:

Current price action is the most important input in the decision-making process.

The numbers support the story—but price action tells it.

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